Fed Holds Rate at 3.75%–4% in October Decision

The Fed held its target range at 3.75%–4%, matching expectations and unchanged from the prior meeting.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate at a target range of 3.75%–4% on Wednesday, matching what was expected and leaving the range unchanged from before the meeting. The policy rate, known as the federal funds target range, stays at the same level set previously. Chair Warsh was due to hold a press conference at 2:30 PM ET following the announcement.

The Fed's decision, October 28, 2026
MeasureRate
Decision3.75%–4%
Expected3.75%–4%
Before the meeting3.75%–4%

Source: Economic calendar: the Federal Reserve's policy rate and the consensus forecast · as of October 28, 2026 at 2:05 PM ET · The federal funds target range. Announced at 2:00 PM ET; the press conference is at 2:30 PM ET.

The committee's projections

No new projections came with this meeting. TheStreet reported that the Fed did not release an updated Summary of Economic Projections, the quarterly table of policymakers' rate forecasts, at this gathering.

Where the rate has been

The effective federal funds rate, tracked as a monthly average, stood at 3.75% in September 2026, the most recent reading in the series. The rate reached a high of 5.33% in August 2023 and a low of 0.05% in April 2020, and it was 4.22% a year earlier than the latest reading.

The effective federal funds rate, monthly average, November 2006 to September 2026
Latest
3.8% Sep 2026
High
5.3% Aug 2023
Low
0.1% Apr 2020

Source: Federal Reserve, effective federal funds rate, monthly · The monthly average runs to September 2026; it trails the target the committee sets.

How markets took it

At 2:05 PM ET, shortly after the decision, the S&P 500 traded at 7,734.00, up 0.15% from the prior close, while the Nasdaq Composite was at 26,466.89, down 0.04%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.74% to 5.031%. TheStreet reported that a hold was priced at roughly 93% by CME's FedWatch tool ahead of the announcement, and traders on X were discussing whether the statement and press conference might leave room for a rate hike later in the year.

Markets after the decision
MarketLevelChange
S&P 5007,734.00+0.15%
Nasdaq Composite26,466.89-0.04%
10-year Treasury yield5.031%+0.74%

Source: Index and Treasury yield quotes · as of October 28, 2026 at 2:05 PM ET · Read at 2:05 PM ET; change is from the prior close.

Sources

How this was made

Built from WiseView and market data, with reporting from the sources above. Drafted with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor before publishing. How this report is made

For information only, not investment advice.

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