Week Ahead: Fed Decision, GDP, PCE Inflation and Peak Earnings Week

The week's most important release is Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision, paired with new economic projections and a press conference, alongside Thursday's first look at third-quarter GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE. It also lands in the busiest stretch of earnings season, with 178 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report between Monday and Friday.

Economic calendar

Monday brings lighter, medium-impact readings: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September, with consensus at -0.1 versus a prior of -0.04, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for October, seen at 7 versus a prior of 9.8.

Tuesday is busier. Durable goods orders for September are expected to rise 0.6% both headline and ex-transportation, following prior readings of -0.1% and 0.3% respectively, while orders excluding defense carry a consensus of 0% against a prior of 0.1%. New home sales for September are seen slowing to 0.66 million, a 3.5% monthly decline, after a prior 6.4% increase. The Case-Shiller home price index is expected at 2.6% year over year versus 2.5% prior, and consumer confidence for October is seen at 80.5 versus 81.9 previously. The American Petroleum Institute's weekly crude oil stock change follows in the afternoon, after a prior draw of 4.93 million barrels.

Wednesday centers on the Federal Reserve. The Fed releases its interest rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, with consensus holding the rate at 4%, matching the prior level, alongside updated economic projections and a 2:30 PM press conference. Earlier in the day, the goods trade balance for September is expected at -128.7 billion dollars versus -132.1 billion prior, and wholesale and retail inventories data round out the morning. The Energy Information Administration releases its weekly crude oil stocks change, with consensus pointing to a draw of 0.3 million barrels versus a prior draw of 3.06 million, alongside gasoline stocks data.

Thursday is the heaviest day of the week. The first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth is expected at 3.2% annualized, up from 2.2% in the prior quarter, while the GDP price index is seen easing to 3.5% from 6.1%. On inflation, core PCE is expected at 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year, both slightly firmer than prior readings of 0.2% and 3%. Headline PCE is seen at 0.5% monthly and 3.6% annually. Personal income and spending for September are expected to rise 0.3% each, with spending slowing from a prior 0.9% gain. Initial jobless claims are seen at 196,000 versus 194,000 prior, with continuing claims little changed near 1.73 million.

No high-impact US releases are scheduled for Friday. Separately, BBC reported that UK economists believe the government's fiscal buffer may have roughly halved over the past six months, and that the Chancellor is expected to address funding options in Wednesday's Budget.

Earnings

Monday opens the week with 10 companies reporting, including Verizon with an EPS estimate of $1.27, Cadence Design Systems at $2.05, and Nucor at $5.84, alongside real estate and insurance names such as Public Storage, Welltower and Hartford.

Tuesday expands sharply to 44 companies. Boeing is expected to report a loss of $0.25 per share, while Freeport-McMoRan is seen at $0.82 and Baker Hughes at $0.61. The day also includes American Tower at $1.64, Ecolab at $2.17, and several real estate investment trusts including BXP, Essex Property Trust and Extra Space Storage.

Wednesday brings 50 companies, including Alphabet, which CNBC reported is scheduled to report after the close followed by a 4:30 p.m. call. Other names include Chipotle Mexican Grill at $0.29, Ford Motor Company at $0.41, Boston Scientific at $0.72, Equinix at $4.11, and eBay at $1.41.

Thursday is the busiest day with 61 companies. Amazon is expected at $1.96 per share, Caterpillar at $7.04, and Coinbase Global at a loss of $0.23. CNBC noted that Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet are among the heavyweights investors are watching most closely this week. Other Thursday reporters include Bristol Myers Squibb at $1.10, D. R. Horton at $3.01, and Carrier Global at $0.76.

Friday closes the week with 13 companies, including ExxonMobil at $4.10, Chevron Corporation at $4.86, AbbVie at $3.74, and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals at $16.36, alongside Colgate-Palmolive at $0.93 and General Dynamics at $4.12.